A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
